Notes
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Silicon · predictability
Deterministic about where, probabilistic about what
Predictability and determinism are different axes. An architecture must be deterministic about where data moves, but the algorithm can be probabilistic about what the data means.
Sep 2026 -
Markets · reflexivity
The price knows it is being predicted
Short-term prices are hard to predict because any pattern in a market is made of people looking for patterns, so using it changes it.
Sep 2026